The Bosshardt Blog

Only 16 Days Left to Take Advantage of Federal Tax Credits for Home Buyers!!

Only 16 days left to execute a contract to quality for the first time home buyers $8000 tax creditor the $6500 for repeat home buyers. Contracts must be executed no later then April 30th 2010 and must close on or before June 30th 2010.

Market activity has been robust even in light of the slow down normally associated with the spring and easter breaks. "It may be that everyone who wanted to take advantage of the credit has already done so, still we are bracing for a last minute rush," Said Executive Sales Manager Gene Anne Mckay. 

Luckily for those last minute home buyers, interest rates are still relatively low. Mike Jones, Senior Mortgage loan Originator at Alarion Bank says " Right now we can lock a rate for up to 90 days without charging a fee. There is so much volatility in interest rates.The biased is for mortgage rates to go higher, but it literally has been changing on a daily basis. It might be best to lock in and take advantage of opportunity to secure your interest rate that will last until the June 31st 2010 deadline to close."

"Locking in" is the lending term for taking the rate offered today instead of waiting until you close on the note and mortgage. It protects consumers from higher interest rates, though at the expense of potentially giving up lower rates later on.

Karen Godley, a sales agent with Bosshardt, said that she thinks a lot of people don't realize that the tax credit is about to expire, or that they believe it will be extended. "I hope they extend it. I've done more business in the first quarter of 2010 then I did all last year."

The market is stronger. We have seen close sales up 9% year to date, and our inventory of deals set to close over the next 60 days is up 40% over the same time one year ago. Whether or not the increase in activity continues after April 30th is anyone's guess at this point.

Now May Be the Perfect Time to Buy Real Estate as NAR Posts Third Quarter Local Market Analyses

Posted by Aaron Bosshardt, COO, Bosshardt Realty Services, 12/10/2009

I'm not going to go too much in detail on this information for Gainesville, Ocala, and Venice (Sarasota). The previous posts by Mary Smith of Venice, Craig Wilburn of Gainesville, and Garry Griffin of Ocala are just really reinforced by these numbers. Remember these numbers are sort of old news. The data were just released but the third quarter ended in September.

What I would point out is that all markets go through a Boom and Bust cycle. In the Boom we pay too much, and in the bust we can pay too little for things. Remember, you will rarely time any market just right, but now might be the perfect time to buy. Now don't stop reading just yet. I'm not a blind optimist, so let me explain why.

First I'll hit you with the overdone cliche and over marketed tag line "Interest Rates are at an all time low." This is true. If your a financing buyer or a cash buyer that wants to leverage a little bit more buying power out of the current market, not only can you get cheap money, but you can get it for 15-30 years. This gives you a hedge against inflation, which I think we all know is inevitable. In 2013, when rates hit double digits, you will be giggling to yourself that you locked in a 6 percent interest rate on a 30 year investment.

Second, while prices will still go lower, the current market likely offers the best effective prices you will obtain. What I mean by that is the bottom in prices hasn't hit yet, so as long as no one knows where that bottom is, you as a buyer are more likely to negotiate a better price.

Finally, I am a firm believer that at these prices the real estate market will outperform stocks over the next 15 years. I'm even going to be putting my money where my mouth is on this one. I'm looking into a self-directed IRA that will allow me to capitalize on these conditions. I don't know about you, but I'm tired of the whole mutual fund process and the so called "Fat Cats" on Wall Street.

Though all local markets are different, the one thing I found most indicative that prices are overdone on the down side is that if you had bought a home nice years ago the average across our great country is that you would have only retained $3,000 -$4,000 in equity appreciation. I couldn't make an argument that housing prices should be where they were in 2001. Our markets don't reflect that yet, I don't think they will fall that far. The unique opportunity however, is that tou might be able to negotiate close to 2001 purchase prices here and there.

Four Real Esate Questions to Ask Your Local Expert: Gainesville, Venice, Ocala and Should I Buy a Foreclosure?

It was a busy week in real estate this past week. A lot of us got back from the National Association of Realtor's convention in San Diego, and we hadthree days and jet lag to deal with. Others didn't go but couldn't have missed all the seminars and reports being blasted out by NAR via Twitter, LinkedIn, and other social media.

Meanwhile, the city of Gainesville had a meeting on Monday to discuss mandating all new and existing homes in the city limits be upgraded to R-19 Insulation. I was told that the regulatory issues at this meeting were tabled until the January meeting.  I'm also told they will be reviewing the current landlord point and licensing system late in January.

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal ran a blockbuster article on "Ten Questions for the Volatile Real Estate Market."  This was an amazing article that I recommend for all real estate owners and investors. It was trumped by an article floating around later in the week forecasting that the real estate market is heading for a double dip led by a second wave of foreclosures. I think it got more press, because fear mongering always has more traction. I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination that the premise isn't true, but In Gainesville, for example, we are just experiencing the first real wave of foreclosures.

The WSJ article hits on a great  point. Markets are local, and you need to ask a local expert. In fact, four of their 10 questions they deferred to local Realtors. Maybe you can guess what's next? Yes, I have recruited local area experts in Gainesville, Venice, and Ocala to provide their answers to the questions.  Before we move on, I will give you a little background on each of our panelists.

 

Garry Griffin - Garry has been a licensed Realtor for over 20 years. He has been managing and selling in Ocala for the past 5 years. Garry does Commercial and Residential Real Estate in the Ocala area. Garry is a licensed CAM, and in addition to his duties in Real Estate Sales, he also manages associations and the Marion County Property Management division. Garry has recently worked with banks in the area to list REOs.

Craig Wilburn - Craig is a licensed REALTOR. He has been selling real estate in Gainesville and the surrounding counties for over 5 years. As a top producer for Bosshardt Realty, he is committed to 100% customer satisfaction. As a result of that commitment, Craig gets more than 70% of his clients from satisfied clients. He has been in the top five of all residential producers in the Gainesville Alachua County Association of Realtors for the past four years.

Mary Smith - Mary manages a sales force of 14 Realtors in the Venice area, sells, and lists real estate. She is considered a short sale and foreclosure expert and has provided training seminars on these topics. She is the top producing associate in our Venice office and valued member of the Bosshardt Team.

 

1. Is the housing market getting better?

Garry Griffin, Marion County/Ocala:

Marion County home sales have increased by 22 percent from 2008 levels, and the average days on the market have declined somewhat from 165 to 153. While this is good news to some degree, the down side for sellers is that the average sales price has declined from $152,785 to $118,376. A large portion of sales continue to be foreclosure and short sales. Inventory remains high with an average 23 month supply of homes.

Mary Smith, Venice:

 

Is our market getting better?  What we have been experiencing during 2009 in Sarasota County and the Gulf Coast of Florida is a definable movement and change in our marketplace.  Our lower end inventory, based almost solely on distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures, has been selling and thus reducing our inventory. Our local board has reported our sales are up five percent over the third quarter of last year, and our price point has been rising.  Our inventory of active listings has also been decreasing, which of course is a great sign for our price points.

Craig Wilburn, Gainesville : 

"Getting better" is first a matter of clarifying which aspect of the housing market we are referring to. In Gainesville, if you are a home owner who has owned your home for five years or less and need to sell now, the market is not "getting better" for you and probably will not get better for you any time soon. Market inventory is still at a high, and with the current demand we are experiencing, there is a downward pressure happening on home values in our area still.

 

If you are a first time home buyer or buyer in general, the housing market is really "getting better" because prices have come down, there are tax credit incentives available, and current interest rates are at record lows, which makes now the best time to make a buying decision so long as you do not have a plan to resell your home within the next three to five years.

 

If you are a homeowner that has owned a home for more than seven years and need to sell now, the market is "getting better," as you probably have significant equity built up and have the ability to price and market your home in line with what buyers want. There are buyers out there who are excited about the current market values, which are still, in our area, quite a bit higher than when you first purchased your home. There are a lot of homes to compete against, but as long as you can be realistic and find an aggressive Realtor to market your property, the market for you is getting better, and now is a great time to sell.

2. When will housing bottom out?

Garry Griffin, Ocala/Marion County:

All indications are that Marion county still has a ways to go. As long as short sales and foreclosures are prevalent, prices will continue to drop.  Marion County has encountered an above average rate of investment purchases during the boom, and many of the homes are now entering or about to enter the foreclosure stream, meaning prices will continue to fall.

Mary Smith, Venice/Sarasota

The Gulf Coast area was one of the first to hit the downward cycle - October 2005 to be exact. We are hoping that we are becoming one of the first Florida markets to hit bottom!  Our local sales have improved in volume and price point for the second and third quarters of this year. Our inventory is finally showing signs of dissipating, and the mid-range properties are slowly starting to see some movement. More importantly, our pending sales now include properties that are not in pre-foreclosure or short sale status.

Craig Wilburn, Gainesville:

There are no "Crystal Balls" around here to clearly give an accurate answe,r and there are MANY factors that will determine where the "bottom" is. However, there are actually two areas of "a bottom" that I have been paying close attention to in our market. First, in our area, we have already seen a bottom in buying activity, which for us came at the end of 2008 and lasted through the first part of 2009. There was a tremendous decrease in the amount of closed sales volume during that time period. Stimulus plans and buyer tax credits helped bring back an increase in activity in 2009; however, there is still no guarantee that we won't see another bottom emerge in market activity when the credits, incentives, and interest rate lows disappear.

Second, the bottom of home values is not there yet, and from the looks of our overall inventory and sales activity, I believe we still have quite a way to go. That does not mean you should hold off and wait to buy when prices come down lower. If you are a nuyer who needs financing, remember that interest rates are at an all time low, huge cash incentives are available for many qualified buyers, and indicators are pointing to our seeing steady increases in interest rates ahead and removal of these tax credit incentives as time goes on. Also, if prices somehow do rebound sooner than later, you will have missed a great buying season and opportunity. Take advantage of the cheap money now!

3. What signals should I watch to determine whether my local market is improving?

Garry Griffin, Ocala/Marion:

Look at supply and demand. While some of Marion County stats show that the market is improving (sales are up 22 percent), the demand still remains low when compared to the inventory. Marion County also has the second highest unemployment rate in the state at 12.2 percent. Until the local job market improves, we can’t expect to see the real estate market substantially improve.

Mary Smith, Venice:

The Sarasota Board of Realtors is reporting a continual weekly movement of more homes sold and pending than new listings coming on to the market.  The average price of homes sold has also risen five percent, and this was during the summer, which is our slow season.  The average price of homes listed has also risen by two percent in the third quarter of this year. The good news for medium priced home sellers is that their properties are getting more showings and more offers.

Craig Wilburn, Gainesville:

Assuming that "improving" means home prices are either stabilizing or increasing, there is one basic answer here: find a competent real estate professional in your area who has a handle on overall market inventories and sales activity and has the ability to communicate plainly to you what home values are doing at different price point levels. Remember, this is all about supply and demand, and the market will show signs of improvement at different price points. In our area, the market may stabilize or change faster in homes priced under $200K, as there is more demand in that price range; depending on what the inventory looks like, change could come sooner. You also have to be aware of what's going on in your local economy. What are unemployment rates? Are there many new jobs being created? What's happening with the amount of foreclosure and short sale inventory? All these and others are indicators of whether or not a market will show signs of improving.

4. How can I figure out the value of my home?

Garry Griffin, Ocala/Marion County:

Because of the up and down nature of the current market, I’ve found that home valuation web sites do not have accurate estimates of sales prices. The best way to determine your price is to talk to a real estate agent.

Mary Smith, Venice:

In this market the most reliable way to value a home is by asking a local Realtor who knows your specific neighborhood to complete a Comparative Market Analysis for you.  Your local Realtor will be able to give you the sold price per square foot as well as adjustments for items that increase the value of your home, such as a golf course view or granite countertops. The online appraisal sites simply take the price of all properties sold and do not adjust for improvements and community features. Your Realtor will also be able to give you important statistics that will affect the sale and value of your home, such as the number of active listings compared to those that are pending or have sold, as well as the average days on market.  Knowing the facts concerning your specific community as well as your local area is the best way to gain a true value for your home.

Craig Wilburn, Gainesville:

This is the million dollar question! I always begin with explaining to my sellers one thing. What is the definition of "value" as it relates to real estate? In real estate sales there is only one answer - your home is worth what any able and qualified Buyer is willing to pay for it at any specific moment in time (period!).

Now, how do we figure that out? Putting that aside for a moment, there are generally two ways to look at home value. First, there iis the price your home would generally appraise for (as it relates to getting banks to lend money on your home's value). Second, there is the price a buyer would be willing to pay. Sometimes these numbers are in line with each other, but sometimes they are not. So, if your purpose for getting your home's value is to determine how much money a bank will give you for a possible refinance or maybe even an equity loan to do some home improvements or upgrades, then call your bank and have an appraisal done for a few hundred dollars, or contact your local real estate professional and ask for a free CMA (comparative market analysis). There are also free websites like Realtor.com which offer sold data, home value calculations, and other related market info in your area. This will be a good indication of determining how much a bank will typically lend for your home's "value". For the purposes of selling your home, an appraisal or CMA may also be just fine, but more than likely you will need more in-depth market research to get a better read on what price a buyer would likely pay for your home based on current market conditions and trends. Contact your trusted and local real estate professional to acquire that information and market perspective.

Craig Wilburn also offered up some advice on WSJ's final question about whether or not to buy a foreclosure home.

10. Should I invest in foreclosed homes?

Craig Wilburn:

That would depend on the home itself. Not all foreclosed homes are a good value. Sometimes people buy homes strictly for the investment potential, and other times homes are bought for the location, convenience, and overall utility of the house. Neither one of these reasons is wrong in its own sense. Listed bank-owned foreclosed homes are almost always in "as is" condition with the right to inspect and get out if problems discovered on inspection are more than what the buyers are willing to manage. Buying homes from local courthouses does not give you time to inspect, which could potentially be problematic unless you really know what you are doing. If you are an inexperienced buyer, I strongly recommend that you find an experienced Realtor professional that you trust to help guide you through the process, refer qualified inspectors, and help give you an overall understanding of whether or not you are potentially going to make a bad choice. Remember, just because it says "foreclosure" does not mean that it is necessarily a good "value." Take it from someone who has already learned the hard way! There are many good opportunities out there; just get good, clear overall advice before you jump at one.

 

I thought perhaps in the near future we could interview some of our investors and primary residence home buyers that have bought a foreclosure home and to see how that has turned out for them.

One thing I think people should try to keep in mind is that if you are a residential buyer who is financing right now, then it is hard for me to see a significantly better time to buy. With rates as low as they are, you may still see prices come down, only to see rates increasing, which in a way may end up being neutral on total savings. Cash buyers are in a little different boat. Prices may not be at a true bottom, but a cash buyer in this credit weak market has a lot of negotiating power.

I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving this year. There is a lot to be thankful for, and we all have to try to keep a positive attitude, and remember to value and take stock in the most important things in our lives!

Existing Home Sales In Florida and Gainesville are up!!

Posted by Aaron Bosshardt, COO, Bosshardt Realty Services, 11/23/2009

Sales were up. I wouldn't get too excited about it. Prices continue to drop and the number of sales is so small that it's hard to draw relevant conclusions. For example, Condo sales in Gainesville are up 22 percent. That was because 23 units closed in October 2009 versus 18 in 2008 - hardly a significant number, especially considering there are over 660 condos on the market right now. That's a 30 month absorption rate. That sounds worse than it is though; October is a historically slow month for sales in the Gainesville area.

I also find it interesting that NAR is no longer reporting the percentage of sales that are distressed, perhaps because that number is too distressing. In our area this year, for the first time, distressed sales are leading the market in both activity and pricing. In a previous post, I mentioned that appraisers were no longer excluding foreclosures and short sales from their comps.

There are two reasons for that. One because they often don't have enough non-distressed sale comps to do the appraisal. Second, those distressed sales are not what is determining market value.

That's not really as bad as it sounds. A little old school appraisal lesson is that you add to a comparable's value when it has a deficiency, but you never adjust the subject property, so appraisers can still adjust for a non distressed sale when using foreclosures and short sales as comps.

The bottom line is prices continue to decline. We are close enough to the bottom now. No one will be able to tell you where that is until two years after we hit it. If you're a buyer, you're looking at some great deals between low interest rates, declining property taxes, and a buyer's market.

Anthony Clark with the Gainesville Sun called me for commentary on this, and unfortunately I just don't know when to quit. You may find some quotes from me in the paper tomorrow. I think I'll head back out of town.

Thanksgiving is here and I for one am thankful that the 2008 real estate market is behind us and we are about to close the books on 2009. It's been a miserable ride since September 2006. At least now it seems we can start to see glimpses of the light at the end of the tunnel.

How low will Gainesville area home prices go?

Posted by Aaron Bosshardt, COO, Bosshardt Realty, 09/10/2009

Prominent prognosticator and financial guru Meredith Whitney called today for homes prices to fall another 25%. She cited unemployment and the lack of availability of credit.

Locally, we have had two issues as of late:  Prices have fallen significantly this year in our area and continue to drop. According to the National Association of Realtors, Gainesville existing home median sales prices fell just over 11 percent in 2008. The local property appraiser told me they show the number closer to 5%. Either way you look at it, it looks like our prices have a lot more room to drop when you consider what has happened in other areas of our state, such as Orlando and Tampa.

So how much room do prices have on the downside? Tough to say. When I first tried to forecast this in 2006, I felt that, during the boom, speculators (those that bought real estate for short term flips) drove investors (those that bought real estate for long term investment) out of the market.  I recently showed an investment property to a long-standing investor client of ours.  The property was a great residential rental, close to campus, and had a nice separate apartment out back. It was listed for $209,000, but the owner was seeking a quick sale around 189,000. Based on the comparable sales, that number looked good. When I ran the numbers for internal rates of returns and capitalization rates, the returns totalled about 3.5 percent. A 10-year Government Treasury pays that and obviously doesn't have near the risk. Using the old rule of thumb that investors want a "10," the suggested price came out to be $129,000 - almost 30 percent less than what the comps indicated. 

That number jives with Whitney's forecast of another 30 percent drop in prices. Other local experts I talk to seem to think we are close to the bottom. "We are there now, or close to it," said Ricky Nattiel.  That might be supported by the fact that when the final numbers for 2009 come in, we could see a number closer to 30 percent in falling prices. "Foreclosures have really hit our area hard this year. We are seeing these properties come on the market sometimes as much as 50 percent below retail value," said Nattiel.

What might keep driving prices even lower? "Buyers are definitely still in the driver's seat, and that will continue to drive prices lower. Even in distressed situations, my buyers are submitting bids well under asking price," notes Janice Grounds, a local pet lover and condominium expert. This process of submitting low offers is often called "low balling" by industry experts. Then, as Whitney mentioned, the lack of employment and credit means fewer primary home buyers, and as I've shown you, investors and speculators (if there are any left) aren't going to be buying at these prices. Property taxes continue to increase for owners this year in spite of falling prices.  A fact that hasn't slipped past the Gainesville Sun. 

Of course basic supply and demand is at work in our local market as well. "Our Inventory isn't getting any better," said Chris Handy. "For every listing on the market, there are probably two shadow listings that aren't." Handy says a shadow listing is a home that would sell if the market could absorb it, but instead the owner just doesn't market it - a fact that may be reinforced by an article the Wall Street Journal ran recently: "The Reluctant Landlord," which cites Allstate as reporting a 27% increase in conversions from primary residence to Landlord policies this year.

I asked Summer Loduca, Business Development Officer at Bosshardt Property Management, what percentage of the inquiries she gets on new management services are from owners that can't sell. "All you have to do is look at our rental bulletin to see that one third of our available rentals are also for sale. That's never been like that before. I would say half our calls are from owners who can't sell." 

It seems like there are many reasons for prices to go lower and few reasons for prices to go up. Oftentimes that is a sign that the end is near. Nonetheless, if you have a home that you can't sell, it may be time to determine whether you can afford to take the pain now, or sit on the sidelines for years to come. Every year we (property owners) think things will get better if we can just outlast the bad times. Since 2006 ,every year things have gotten worse. The people that sold in 2006 and 2007 are feeling pretty smart right now.

Are homes still being bought and sold? Yes, says Craig Wilburn, Vice President and Diamond Producer. "The market we are in right now consists of buyers that need to buy now and sellers that need to sell. If you're not in one of those two categories, it's unlikely you will buy or sell."

I'd love to hear why prices might be at the bottom or even increase if there are some counterpoints out there. The only one I can thing of is how great it is that Gator Football is in season again. There is nothing in the world that gets Gainesville to feel alive and well like the start of football season.